During difficult times we are advised to look for the silver lining. We are told to have faith that better days are coming. Economists and institutions run by economists tend to be the Cassandra that warns us that difficult days are ahead during the good times. As one economist described the Federal Reserve's role—'the Fed is the person who takes the alcohol laced punch bowl away just as the party gets started. This is as good a time as any to be that party pooper.

This April, continuing a downward trend that began during 2009, the unemployment rate hit the lowest level it has been in more than 40 years. The unemployment rate peaked in October 2009 at 10 percent because of the ....